Investment Insights

CIO Viewpoints

A shares have lagged H shares much, why we think A share may catch up?

Daily Insights

Focus of the Day
  • Fed independence in question; watch out for whether S&P 500 holds the 5,000 level

Other Commentaries

  • China's loan prime rate stayed flat for six months; gold, yen further gained as funds exited USD assets; India stocks saw biggest weekly rise in four years

Market Analysis

FX Markets Analysis

Latest Technical Highlights

JPY - Uptrend ↗

Support / Resistance

vs HKD 5.4259 / 5.6225

vs USD 138.00 / 143.00

It is said that Japan's large life insurance companies plan to increase their investment in Japan's long-term government bonds, which is expected to be good for the yen. Technically, USD/JPY's next support at 138

Legends

Uptrend ↗  Sideways →  Downtrend ↘

Pertaining to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forecasts.

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Stock Markets View

The tightening of US export restrictions on semiconductors has weighed on the sector’s performance. Meanwhile, repeated calls by US President Trump for Fed rate cuts have heightened risk-off sentiment. Market focus remains on the trajectory of trade negotiations

  • US trade policy uncertainty continues to cloud Europe's economic outlook. However, signals from the European Central Bank suggest room for further rate cuts this year, which could provide some support. Markets are expected to remain volatile
  • Policy measures to stimulate growth or specific industries have been rolled out in markets such as Singapore and South Korea. However, with several US trade negotiations still unresolved, consolidation in Asian equities may persist
  • A weaker US dollar has lent support to emerging market currencies. Nonetheless, select Latin American markets continue to face challenges such as high inflation or exposure to US tariffs, suggesting overall volatility is likely to persist
  • China’s Q1 GDP exceeded expectations, and policies in the current quarter are expected to focus on boosting consumption. The market anticipates additional supportive measures following this month’s Politburo meeting, which could bolster the broader market
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Bond Markets View

  • Economic uncertainty in the US remains elevated, and markets anticipate multiple rate cuts this year. Short- to medium-duration US Treasuries are expected to deliver more stable performance
  • While European and US investment-grade corporate bonds stand to benefit from rate cuts and stabilizing sovereign yields, trade tensions and an uncertain economic outlook may weigh on performance in this segment
  • Asian investment-grade bonds exhibit low volatility, and corporate credit quality is steadily improving, supported by policy measures. Capital inflows are expected to favor high-quality, short-duration, domestic demand-driven bonds
  • Risk appetite among investors has declined, leading to the end of a brief rebound in US high-yield bonds. However, valuations have returned to more reasonable levels, potentially attracting medium- to long-term investments

 

  • The Chinese property sector may benefit from further mortgage rate cuts and recent housing market measures, offering potential stabilization in sales. However, complex external trade environment could pressure broader economic growth in Asia
  • A weaker US dollar provides emerging market central banks with greater flexibility to cut rates, supporting regional bonds. Nevertheless, rising global economic headwinds may increase the risk of capital outflows from emerging market assets
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

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